The Quiet Withdrawal of Wealth

The Mechanics of Strength

Economic resilience is often misunderstood.

We see the numbers — GDP growth, consumer spending, stable employment — and assume the system is strong. But behind the metrics, something quieter has been holding it up.

For the past few years, one of the key drivers of U.S. demand wasn’t wage growth or productivity. It was something simpler: the wealthiest households, buoyed by rising asset prices, kept spending.

That spending supported markets, corporate revenues, and investor sentiment.

But what happens when that dynamic starts to shift?

If strength is coming from the top, how strong is it really?

A Top-Heavy Engine

Today, the top 10% of American households are responsible for nearly half of all consumer spending.

That’s not a footnote — it’s a structural feature. As portfolios grew, spending did too. Businesses adjusted: brands moved upmarket, pricing strategies targeted the affluent, and entire sectors optimised for confidence at the top.

The model worked. Until the conditions that supported it started to change.

Can an economy built around affluence adapt when affluence becomes uncertain?

The Shifting Landscape

Asset prices aren’t rising like they used to. Equity markets are volatile. Housing has softened. Private asset valuations are being reset. Pandemic savings have been drawn down. And while these changes haven’t sparked crisis, they’ve sparked caution. Caution shows up in small ways: spending is delayed, confidence wavers, optional purchases get re-evaluated.

In an economy built on high-end consumption, even a mild shift in sentiment can have ripple effects.

If spending depends on how wealthy people feel — what happens when that feeling changes?

The Signals Are Showing

Luxury and premium brands are already responding to the shift — not in their messaging, but in their numbers.

• LVMH — home to Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Moët — is down 38% year-to-date after a surprise drop in sales.

• Kering, which owns Gucci and Saint Laurent, has fallen 49.6%, as key labels struggle to regain momentum.

• Burberry (–24%), L’Oréal (–21.2%), and Lululemon (–26%) have all underperformed expectations.

These are not niche businesses. They’re global signals — and they’re telling us something’s changing.

Are these just bad quarters — or a sign that something deeper is shifting in the structure of demand?

Fragility or Resilience?

Some sectors will feel this more than others.

Aspirational, lifestyle-driven consumption — luxury goods, high-end services, discretionary wellness — depends on confidence. These purchases aren’t needs. They’re choices. But companies offering essential goods, value-for-money products, or daily-use services may prove more stable. Their demand isn’t built on sentiment. It’s built on habit.

That difference matters — especially when confidence is softening.

What would it look like to build economic strength on what people need — not just what they want when they feel wealthy?

The Questions That Matter

This isn’t a collapse. It’s a shift.But shifts matter — especially the quiet ones.

Rather than forecast, it’s worth reflecting:

– How much of the current economy depends on a narrow base of affluent consumers?

– What happens when those consumers begin to slow down?

– Which businesses are built for momentum — and which are built for endurance?

Because if our resilience is based on sustained spending from the top, we need to ask:

What happens if the top pulls back — not because they have to, but because they choose to?

This Isn’t a Prediction — It’s a Prompt

At Clarus Orbis, we don’t forecast markets. We look at systems — how they evolve, where they strain, and what questions need asking when familiar signals begin to blur. The goal isn’t certainty. It’s clarity. And that starts by paying attention to what’s quietly changing beneath the surface.

Thanks for reading. Want to explore this further? Get in touch — or follow along for more insight on the deeper shifts shaping markets, systems, and strategy.